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Computer simulation picks Wings to win it all

Thursday, 05.22.2008 / 4:28 PM ET / Features
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Computer simulation picks Wings to win it all

Computer simulations conducted by WhatIf Sports have determined that the Red Wings will win the Stanley Cup in five games.
Get ready for a victory parade, Hockeytown!

According to WhatIf Sports, the Red Wings will dispatch the Penguins in five games to claim their first Stanley Cup title since 2002 and fourth in the last 11 seasons.

That is what was determined in 10,000 Stanley Cup finals computer simulations conducted by WhatIf Sports, a fantasy sports Web site designed to simulate games between past and present sports teams using real historical statistics.

After 10,000 simulations were run, the veteran Wings defeated the up-and-coming Penguins 68 percent of the time, with the most common occurrence a five-game series in which Pittsburgh will earn its only victory in Game 3 on home ice.

The simulations were run using the actual 2007-08 regular season stats compiled by Detroit and Pittsburgh.

Game 1
Pittsburgh 1 at Detroit 3 – Mikael Samuelsson (2-1-3) and Henrik Zetterberg (1-2-3) provide the offense and Chris Osgood makes 26 saves to lead the Red Wings. Petr Sykora scores the only goal for the Penguins. Led by Pavel Datsyuk (two assists), Detroit also dominates faceoffs (73.8 percent). The three stars are Samuelsson, Zetterberg and Datsyuk.

RED WINGS VS. PENGUINS

Sat, May 24: Penguins @ Red Wings
8:00pmET - VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Mon, May 26: Penguins @ Red Wings
8:00pmET - VERSUS, CBC, RDS
Wed, May 28: Red Wings @ Penguins
8:00pmET - NBC, CBC, RDS
Sat, May 31: Red Wings @ Penguins
8:00pmET - NBC, CBC, RDS
 
*Mon, June 2: Penguins @ Red Wings
8:00pmET - NBC, CBC, RDS
*Wed, June 4: Red Wings @ Penguins
8:00pmET - NBC, CBC, RDS
*Sat, June 7: Penguins @ Red Wings
8:00pmET - NBC, CBC, RDS
All games on NHL RADIO
 * if necessary
Age irrelevant
Numbers mean very little to Detroit’s Chris Chelios -- only Stanley Cups. At age 46, the two-time winner still has the snarl and passion to do whatever it takes to win another one. …more

The Penguins' path
The Pittsburgh Penguins' trip to the '08 Stanley Cup Final actually started way back in 2003. Dan Rosen recounts the journey from the beginning. ...more


Related Links:
            
Preview | Storylines | Game-breakers

Game 2
Pittsburgh 1 at Detroit 4 – Detroit takes a 3-0 lead to chase Marc-Andre Fleury from the net early in the third period, the second-straight game he is replaced by Ty Conklin. Zetterberg and Valtteri Filppula (shorthanded) score in the second period, and defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski (1-1-2) pad the lead in the third for the Wings. Sykora scores once again for the Pens. The three stars are Rafalski, Osgood (30 saves) and Filppula (1-1-2).

Game 3
Detroit 0 at Pittsburgh 3 – The Pens get revenge with two first-period goals from Ryan Malone, both assisted by Sykora and Evgeni Malkin, and Marian Hossa scores in the second, with Sidney Crosby earning his first career point in the Final. Fleury makes 23 saves for the shutout. The three stars are Fleury, Malone and Malkin.

Game 4
Detroit 1 at Pittsburgh 0 – Zetterberg scores the game’s only goal 13 seconds into the first period, assisted by Rafalski and Samuelsson, to give the Wings a 3-1 series lead. For the second straight game, only one penalty was called (Maxime Talbot, two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct). The three stars are Osgood (35 saves), Fleury (29 saves) and Zetterberg.

Game 5

Pittsburgh 3 at Detroit 4 – In the wildest and highest-scoring game of the series, the Red Wings erase a 3-0 third period deficit with four unanswered goals, the last by Datsyuk at 5:17 of overtime, to capture the Cup at Joe Louis Arena. Hossa scored the first of his two goals only six seconds into the game, Malone also scores, and Crosby and Pascal Dupuis each record two assists. Pittsburgh squanders a brilliant 48-save performance by Fleury. Daniel Cleary began the comeback with his first goal of the series at 12:20 of the third period, and Zetterberg (1-1-2) and Filppula scored 1:01 apart late in the period to force overtime. Samuelsson recorded two assists and Osgood made 21 saves. The three stars are Datsyuk, Hossa and Fleury.

Osgood is also awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as Stanley Cup Playoff MVP. In 18 games, he went 14-4 and permitted 28 goals. Zetterberg scored a goal in four of five games, and he and Samuelsson tie for the scoring lead in the Final with seven points each. Sykora (2-3-5) was the high scorer for Pittsburgh, one point ahead of Malone (3-1-4).

In another simulation conducted by WhatIf before the playoffs began, their "super computer" gave Detroit (61.5 percent) and Pittsburgh (17.2 percent) the first and third best chances, respectively, of making the Stanley Cup Final. The original Stanley Cup Final prediction was Detroit over Montreal, giving the Red Wings a 51.1 percent chance of winning the Cup.

***

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Author: Rocky Bonanno | NHL.com Staff Writer

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STANDINGS

EASTERN CONFERENCE
  TEAM GP W L OT GF GA PTS
1 p - WSH 82 56 18 8 252 193 120
2 x - PIT 82 48 26 8 245 203 104
3 y - FLA 82 47 26 9 239 203 103
4 x - NYR 82 46 27 9 236 217 101
5 x - NYI 82 45 27 10 232 216 100
6 x - TBL 82 46 31 5 227 201 97
7 x - PHI 82 41 27 14 214 218 96
8 x - DET 82 41 30 11 211 224 93
9 BOS 82 42 31 9 240 230 93
10 CAR 82 35 31 16 198 226 86
11 OTT 82 38 35 9 236 247 85
12 NJD 82 38 36 8 184 208 84
13 MTL 82 38 38 6 221 236 82
14 BUF 82 35 36 11 201 222 81
15 CBJ 82 34 40 8 219 252 76
16 TOR 82 29 42 11 198 246 69

STATS

2015-2016 REGULAR SEASON
SKATERS: GP G A +/- Pts
H. Zetterberg 82 13 37 -15 50
D. Larkin 80 23 22 11 45
T. Tatar 81 21 24 4 45
G. Nyquist 82 17 26 -2 43
J. Abdelkader 82 19 23 -16 42
M. Green 74 7 28 -6 35
B. Richards 68 10 18 4 28
D. Helm 77 13 13 -2 26
N. Kronwall 64 3 23 -21 26
R. Sheahan 81 14 11 -8 25
 
GOALIES: W L OT Sv% GAA
P. Mrazek 27 16 6 .921 2.33
J. Howard 14 14 5 .906 2.80